We measure solar risk at the hardware, not the weather model. Verified, panel-level data compresses the P50 to P99 band, so capital gets cheaper and recoverable output shows up as alpha.
We compress the P50 to P99 band the market prices as risk. Lower variance is lower risk premium: more debt, cheaper equity, lower premiums. The real cost of capital move, and it grows at the P99 tail lenders and insurers underwrite to.
Per-panel truth makes output recoverable and loss improvable: the 9 to 13% lost today to undiagnosed faults, soiling and mismatch. Measured excess return the model leaves on the table.